STRATEGY OR ARMY MANOEUVRES?

By: Jean Michel VERNOCHET
E.P.N. European Press Network

Which role does the head of the American diplomacy, Colin Powell, exactly hold in the complex play of the White House in the Near East, particularly in its relationship with Iraq?

Many indices result in wondering whether there is not any allocation of the functions? In this case, Powell would have endorsed the livery almost immaculate of the white dove. Indeed, how to explain that on February 14th at a meeting with Kofi Annan in New York, hence very precisely two days before the bombardments of Baghdad on the 16th, he could allow to be said "that he realised the futility of the Iraqi policy of the State Department  "adding that the European Union " did not have any hostility towards civilian Iraqi " and wishing ultimately to "see Iraq gradually become again a member of the UN"?

Double language, disavowal, bluff or blunder? Powell more political than military, although victorious of the Gulf in 1991, has already accustomed us during the time of senior Bush, to tolerably shifted standpoints compared to the hard line. Thus, fall 1990 he recommended the abandonment of Kuwait and the edification of a line of defence intended only to protect Saudi Arabia. It was necessary for Dick Cheney, Secretary of Defence, to create a planning cell in order to short-circuit the staff headquarters. Climax! Today one allots to him the responsibility of not having liquidated the Iraqi spearhead of the Iraqi forces, namely the Republican Guard, and to have thus contributed to block the decision to push Desert Storm to Baghdad.

The Machiavellian will not fail to say on this subject that in the process, by preserving the Republican Guard intact, he left the Iraqis the capacity to ultimately crush the Shiite rebellion in the South. Largely encouraged revolt by the American administration itself and abandoned as soon as triggered. However, the goal was achieved: the Emirates and the Saudi Arabians remained stunned at the idea that an independent Shiite entity had been able to settle down at their gates. Thus, they became much more flexible and better disposed to concede a long-term lease to the indiscreet installation of Americans on the sacred ground of Islam!

In the same order of idea, the Machiavellian enjoyed adding that by pretending to respect the Resolutions of the Security Council and by abstaining to pursue towards Baghdad the Americans gave them serious guarantees to remain in the area for a long time thanks to the" Devil " of Baghdad. Ten years of embargo, always renewed in spite of unrestricted miseries of people taken as hostage, actually ended up by giving some consistency to this thesis. Saddam Hussein with its defending body would have become in this scenario kind of objective allies of Washington's policy Moreover, undoubtedly its guarantee.

There is just that the Special Adviser Richard Perle deplores that the embargo is starting to have " as many holes as the Gruyere cheese "! Richard Perle belongs to those who with the Pentagon Staff want to eliminate the Master of Baghdad at all costs, large regional de-stabiliser following the example of Milosevic in the Balkans. Position considered unrealistic and even adventurous by the General Anthony Zinni, formerly among the American forces for the P.O.


Zinni in fact does not hesitate to proclaim to whom ever wants to listen too him that this kind of manipulation has all chances of ending up in a bloody fiasco as in 1961 at the Bay of pig and its catastrophic anti-castroist disembarkation.

Because in spite of the celestial manna that the Congress showered down on the Iraqi opposition in exile (30 million S were just unblocked) this one never knew how to find the least coherence. She acknowledges with frankness by the mouth of its most authorised representatives "not to have any alternative project " to the present power. Finally the status quo and the maintenance of the blockade offer her a rather comfortable secure income while waiting for better days.

Finally, the last American strikes, which were more spectacular than ever, were they the preamble of something more consequent? In brackets, let us remember that since two years ago and the avenging salvos of December 1998, while Clinton was being entangled then in the Lewinsky affair, the weapons were never held silent in Iraq which endured nearly weekly attacks against its anti-aircraft defences system and suffered human losses largely exceeding four hundred dead!

A priori not. However, in the very short term! Indeed, Anthony Zinni and his like will soon no more be in a position to counterbalance the inclinations of the Pentagon falcons relayed by those of the White House. Today, in the balance of power, which opposes the follow-throughers with the moderates such as Colin Powell, the strikes can still be interpreted like a pledge granted to the tough ones. These strikes were extremely useful in that they showed to these very tough ones that the policy of force results in little tangible on the ground. On the contrary, they were diplomatically completely counter-productive if the noisy reprobation of just the Europeans is considered. Védrine on an uncommon tone with regard to the Big American Brother has even allowed himself to qualify the strikes themselves as " illegal ones ".

Counter-productive by what they reveal in bright light, Washington's< isolation in the pursuit of a breathless containment policy does not have any more as declared support then a Tony Blair himself also in loss of speed and submerged by the agricultural crisis. The mad-cow and foot-and-mouth diseases, the IRA-bombs, he is slowly by slowly given up by his own. This is why he is only too happy to find by Junior-Bush's side, in direction of the Tiger and Euphrates, a diversion to these dramatic domestic problems. From this point of view, the White House would consider a turn on the wing at 1801 concerning Iraq, that it should not handle things differently there. If Bush wanted to negotiate an outcome from the embargo, he would certainly, start by reassuring its interventionist right. After having devoted himself to this kind of " gallant last stand " to empty the abscess while allowing its political activists to unwind, it, would be permissible for him to start the negotiation in a position of strength i.e. with the weapons threat. A radical change of policy would become possible then without losing face.

A contrary, if one takes as starting point of the analysis the instability of the ratios of forces at the top of the American State, it is necessary to see in the strikes a preliminary to the hardening and " the move toward action ". From this point of view, certain signs do not mislead. State Department plays the Iranian card fully fledged which in the long term could lead to create in the South of Iraq a kind of super Kuwait. Autonomous republic reserved for the Iraqi Shiites. Killing 2 birds with one stone, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia put in front of the accomplished fact would only be more pledged with the American protection whose military bases would be perpetuated sine die. And then especially, that would make it possible for Uncle Sam to put its hands on the super-giant oilfields still lying fallow, such as Majnoun... The Iraqi South is the cave of Ali Baba, the paradise of the black gold...

In order to accomplish this, Washington must obligatorily obtain the neutrality of Teheran and the freedom of movement of the 40 000 men from the super equipped troops of Mohammed Baker Al Hakim, which were waiting to champ at the hour of revenge after having slowed down the Shiite Iraqis the day following the Desert's Storm alias the " Mother of Battles ". The shootings for two years against the Iraqi radar's and the anti-aircraft batteries cannot be explained differently. The Pentagon strategists always keep vividly in mind the scenario of a terrestrial offensive in the South led by the Iraqi forces of opposition stationed in Iran. Which schema implies that all installations on the ground, which could oppose themselves or prohibit Anglo-American air support at low altitude be destroyed.

However, the talks with the Islamic Republic of Iran seem to be in high frequencies at the present time. The eventuality of a terrestrial intervention in the South remains thus plausible and consequently cannot be completely isolated from the prospective field. More probable however, is a republication of the operation the "Desert's Fox" as well as an advanced destruction campaign of the sites known as sensitive: destruction for example for the nth time of the nuclear research power station of Tammouz in proximity of Baghdad with radioactive cloud included in the event, and other Presidential Palaces not visited by the cowboys of Unscom. The control and disarmament mission mandated by the Security Council declared persona non- grata had to leave Iraq unobtrusively. To bombard intensively is an expeditious way, certainly, but which would certainly make it possible for the controllers of the United Nations to regain time and the lost ground in two years of absence.

Finally, the resumption of the " active measures " directed against Iraq - hence the operations of propaganda of war still called misinformation - and their intensity at an unknown level since a long time would lead to assume that there is something in the wind. To hear the BND, the German services of information, Iraq would be able to acquire the nuclear weapon in three years. That the wind of rumours immediately transformed into underground test carried out since 1997! Without the seismographs realising anything! Besides two ghost squads that would have crossed the last decades buried in a sand shroud by the desert border's, Iraq would soon be ready to implement vectors of a range of 3000 km " which can reach Europe " and would also be reconstituting its potential of biological and chemical weapons... All is possible; one lends very rich people.

Last but not least, virtuosity in art to throw into a panic the brains confines to the sublime when the absurd but seducing idea diffuses itself that the epizootic of foot-and-mouth disease would be ascribable to viral agents introduced in the United Kingdom by emissaries of Saddam!! At this stage does one have to speak of psychosis or of conditioning? After that, if it is not bucketing down cats and dogs on Iraq and if it is not raining down Tomahawks on Baghdad it is that meteorology is not yet an exact science!...